so many snubs: my thoughts & predictions for the 2019 Oscars

To many avid movie goers, the Oscars are somewhat of a second Christmas. People throw extravagant Oscar viewing parties, and place hefty bets on who they think will win. Although, for the past few years the Oscars have been changing. Ever since #OscarsSoWhite in 2015, the academy has definitely begun to take a different approach to the films they consider — and the ones that ultimately win.

While this year’s Oscars are already shaping up to be a very interesting one, with the whole debacle of Kevin Hart. The nominations officially came out this past Tuesday, January 22nd (at 5:30 am nonetheless!) and I have some feelings. This past year for movies was definitely a mixed batch, especially when we had movies like Black Panther — which came out almost a whole year ago. we also had a very odd Golden Globes this year, with a lot of surprises, so honestly I think we can expect almost anything at this year’s Oscars.

There were so many snubs in this years nominations. From Ethan Hawke in First Reformed, to ANYTHING for Eighth Grade. Many were also hoping Toni Colette would get a nomination for her role in Hereditary. After this years Golden Globes I was really hoping the Oscars would turn everything around, yet they ended up being very similar in a lot of ways.

So I’m going to go over some of the main Oscar categories, express my very mixed feelings on the nominations and include what I think should win, as well as what I think will win.

*disclaimer: I will admit and say there are a couple films that I have yet to catch up on… that being said I will proabably post another more concise version once I am (hopefully) more caught up!*

Original Screenplay:

“The Favourite,” Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara
“First Reformed,” Paul Schrader
“Green Book,” Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly
“Roma,” Alfonso Cuarón
“Vice,” Adam McKay

This category gives me mixed feelings of disappointment AND excitement. I’m disappointed because I was really hoping Bo Burnham would get a nomination for his debut film Eighth Grade. But on the bright side it’s great to see Paul Schrader on this list, even if it is (unfortunately) the only nomination for First Reformed.

should win: Paul Schrader, First Reformed  (OR BO BURNHAM, EIGHTH GRADE!! *not nominated*)

will win: Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly; Green Book

Adapted Screenplay:

“The Ballad of Buster Scruggs,” Joel Coen , Ethan Coen
“BlacKkKlansman,” Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee
“Can You Ever Forgive Me?,” Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty
“If Beale Street Could Talk,” Barry Jenkins
“A Star Is Born,” Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters

Seeing as this is one of the very few nominations given to If Beale Street Could Talk, I’m rooting for Barry Jenkins to get his second Oscar in this category. Although, I also think BlacKkKlansman is a contender — and after reading up on the true story I think it was translated to screen quite well.

should win: Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk

will win: Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee; BlacKkKlansman

Animated Feature:

“Incredibles 2,” Brad Bird
“Isle of Dogs,” Wes Anderson
“Mirai,” Mamoru Hosoda
“Ralph Breaks the Internet,” Rich Moore, Phil Johnston
“Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse,” Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey, Rodney Rothman

First of all, I unfortunately have only seen 2 out of the 5 nominees in this category So I can’t speak TOO MUCH on the topic. That being said Spider-Verse was honestly one of my favourite movies in 2018, so I’m definitely rooting for it.

should win: Spider man: into the spider-verse

will win: Spider-man: into the spider verse

Director:

Spike Lee, “BlacKkKlansman”
Pawel Pawlikowski, “Cold War”
Yorgos Lanthimos, “The Favourite”
Alfonso Cuarón, “Roma”
Adam McKay, “Vice”

This is a pretty good (and *cough* male *cough*) line up for directors this year. A lot of people think Bradley Cooper was snubbed for his work on A Star is Born, but I think everyone on this list is deserving of their nomination. Not to mention we have Spike Lee’s FIRST best director nomination, which he is definitely overdue for and deserving of.

should win: Spike Lee, BlackKklansman (or) Alfonso Cuarón, Roma.

will win: Alfonso Cuarón, Roma

Supporting Actress:

Amy Adams, “Vice”
Marina de Tavira, “Roma”
Regina King, “If Beale Street Could Talk”
Emma Stone, “The Favourite”
Rachel Weisz, “The Favourite”

This category is jam packed with super deserving and talented women. Although, in my opinion, we don’t need Rachel Weisz AND Emma Stone there… I think Claire Foy in First Man could’ve replaced Emma. Amy Adam’s performance in Vice was also really good, and I’m glad to see Marina de Tavira for her work in Roma.

should win: Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (or) Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk  

will win: Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

Supporting Actor:

Mahershala Ali, “Green Book”
Adam Driver, “BlacKkKlansman”
Sam Elliott, “A Star Is Born”
Richard E. Grant, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
Sam Rockwell, “Vice”

I will admit that I am slightly disappointing to not see my boy Timmy (Timothée Chalemet) here for his work on Beautiful Boy, although I am glad to Adam Driver for BlacKkKlansman. All in all though, I think Mahershala Ali is in good hands to receive his second Oscar (In just 2 years!) because despite the messiness of Green Book as a movie, he is really the best part of the movie.

should win: Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman 

will win: Mahershala Ali, Green Book

Lead Actress:

Yalitza Aparicio, “Roma”
Glenn Close, “The Wife”
Olivia Colman, “The Favourite”
Lady Gaga, “A Star Is Born”
Melissa McCarthy, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”

This category is, at least to me, one of the most talked about categories this year. From the second A Star Is Born was released people have been praising Lady Gaga’s performance and predicting her Oscar win. To be honest though, I didn’t love A Star Is Born as much as everyone else I know, and personally don’t think Lady Gaga was actually that amazing. This category is quite packed, much like supporting actress, and I’m glad to see Yalitza Aparicio for Roma, and Melissa McCarthy for Can You Ever Forgive Me? (funnily enough Melissa McCarthy was actually also nominated for worst actress at the Razzies for her work in The Happytime Murders & Life Of The Party, Meaning she was nominated for both best and worst actress this year!) ((also, I think it would have been so cool to see Elsie Fisher for Eighth Grade on here, but I know it was a bit of a long shot))

should win: Olivia Coleman, The Favourite 

will win: Glenn Close, The Wife

Lead Actor:

Christian Bale, “Vice”
Bradley Cooper, “A Star Is Born”
Willem Dafoe, “At Eternity’s Gate”
Rami Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody”
Viggo Mortensen, “Green Book”

I was at first surprised to see William Dafoe on here, but it seems to me the academy has a soft spot for him as he was nominated for The Florida Project last year. Although, in my opinion, I think he could’ve been replaced by John David Washington for BlacKkKlansman. A lot like last year with Gary Oldman, we have the extreme transformation of Christian Bale into Dick Cheney for Vice (Which I think helped Gary Oldman win his Oscar last year for The Darkest Hour) That being said I think we also have to look at Rami Malek’s transformation into Freddie Mercury for Bohemian Rhapsody, and even Bradley Cooper in A Star Is Born.

should win: Christian Bale, Vice

will win: Christian Bale, Vice

Best Picture:

“Black Panther”
“BlacKkKlansman”
“Bohemian Rhapsody”
“The Favourite”
“Green Book”
“Roma”
“A Star Is Born”
“Vice”

Honestly, this list of best picture nominations is so weird and I think can only best described by this tweet. It’s pretty awesome to see Black Panther on here, being a superhero movie as well as a movie that broke a lot of boundaries in Hollywood. that being said… does it deserve a best picture nomination? in my opinion, no. In my opinion, Infinity War was a better film this year, and if any superhero movie should’ve been nominated for best picture it’s 2017’s Logan (but don’t get me started on that snub). The other movie I don’t think should be here is Bohemian Rhapsody. Not only does it have a 62% on RottenTomatoes, and has received is own spew of criticisms and controversies — to top it all off, it’s just not that great of a film! and I definitely think a movie like If Beale Street Could Talk (or even Eighth Grade!) should take it’s place. We also have another film jam packed with messiness & controversy — Green Book — but, for some reason it seems like people don’t care about all that, and therefore it could definitely take home the award.

should win: The Favourite

will win: Green Book

So there you have it! It think we’re gearing up for a very interesting academy awards this year… and as a I said above, since there are still a couple films I have to catch up on, I may do another list closer to the awards ceremony!

The Oscars this year are on Sunday February 24th at 5:00 pm (PST)

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